ANC will dominate 2019 elections – Ipsos survey

Indications are that Cyril Ramaphosa’s “new dawn”, dubbed “Ramaphoria”, may be taking the ANC on a path of increased voter support.

The latest survey by respected research house, Ipsos, shows the ANC gannering just above 60% in the survey whilst the main opposition Democratic Alliance falls to almost half of its 2014 support.

In its explanatory notes, Ipsos published the following:

Choice of political party

“Using a ballot paper like that used in an election, respondents had to “vote for” their choice of political party. The question specified that they need to consider their choice as if the election were happening the next day.  Six in every ten South African adults of voting age (18+) chose the ANC.  Other opposition parties did not perform as well, with the DA, especially, performing well below the share of vote they received in the national election of 2014 and the local government election of 2016. Every respondent was asked to indicate which party they would vote for on the national ballot paper and on the provincial ballot paper (as some voters split their votes between two parties). It is important to point out that these figures are not a prediction for the national election in 2019, as it is still a considerable time before the election and many events that will sway voting behaviour are bound to happen.  Also, these figures include a projection of the choices of all South Africans of voting age.  In an election, only registered voters participate and then not all of them go to the polls on election day.  Thus, different scenarios have to be considered when predicting election results.”

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